NBB Division Preview: AL West

Seattle Mariners 2007 Finish: 2nd in West NBB Prediction: 1st in West

The Mariners are coming off an interesting regular season and an offseason featuring a blockbuster deal. The team only finished 6 games behind the division-winning Angels, and if it wasn't for a 17 game stretch where they lost 15, they would have had a strong chance to make the playoffs. John McLaren enters his first full season as head coach with the team, as Mike Hargrove left the team in the middle of the last season. This could be the year for the Mariners, as they have a truly competitive team.

On the Mound
The Mariners made their biggest splash on the trade market in a long while with the acquisition of Erik Bedard. Bedard was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball last year for the Orioles as he racked up 221 K's, while sporting only a 3.16 ERA. Bedard gives them someone they know to anchor the top of that rotation and take some pressure off of youngster Felix Hernandez to carry the load. Felix looked amazing at times last year as he posted a sub-4 ERA, although he once again battled injury issues. If Felix can stay healthy, this may be the best 1-2 combination in baseball, however his health isn't exactly the most stable situation. The rest of the Mariners rotation is solid, but not overpowering. The back end is made up of Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, and Carlos Silva. These three guys are about all even in ability, and will each most likely post an ERA somewhere between 4-4.5. In all, the starting rotation is very solid and will most likely be the best rotation in the division.

The Mariners' bullpen was one of its bright points last season. J.J. Putz had an outstanding season, as he was one of the best closers in baseball. There are still some questions about this years bullpen, and only time will tell how they will perform. I would expect a slight step down from the teams bullpen last season. However, it is difficult to tell as bullpens seem to fluctuate from year to year.

At the Plate
The team didn't do much in the offseason to fortify their offense, outside of the signing of OF Brad Wilkerson. Wilkerson isn't exactly a offensive juggernaut, but he will provide you with 20+ homerun power. One thing the Mariners should be concerned with is his weak on-base percentage the past 2 seasons. He went from a .470 OBP hitter to a .410, and it will be interesting to see if he can get his numbers in that category back up. The rest of their outfield is solid, with 100+ run guy Ichiro Suzuki and 100+ RBI guy Raul Ibanez. Adrian Beltre will once again be holding down 3B, and will slot in for 25 homers and a .315 OBP. One of the real question marks for the team this season will be SS Yuniesky Betancourt. If Betancourt can continue his upward trend in slugging, he can become a very valuable shortstop. Specifically, he needs to use better pitch selection, as he only walked 15 times in 536 plate attempts last season. One other question mark will be Richie Sexson. If he can return to old form, the team will instantly be able to contend with any team in the West, but if he performs like last season... well, I think you get where I'm going. Johjima is becoming one of the better catchers in baseball, and is a great player to have on any team.

Los Angeles Angels 2007 Finish: 1st in West NBB Prediction: 2nd in West

One would think that signing one of the best centerfielders in the game would only improve a team that won the division in the previous year. However, this Angels team has faced a slew of injuries to some of their most valuable players and will have a much more challenging year ahead.

On the Mound
This Angels pitching staff is where the most damaging injuries have occurred for this team. The teams top 2 starters from last years squad, John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar, have both faced injuries that will keep them out for at least the first month of the season. It is also being reported that Escobar has a tear in his shoulder that may require season-ending surgery. No matter how good a team is, it is tough to lose your #2 starter, especially when your #1 will be out for a month. When Lackey is healthy he is one of the most consistently good pitchers in the game. He will go 7 innings nearly every time out and give your team a great opportunity to win. With these 2 guys out for opening day, that leaves youngster Jered Weaver as the opening day starter. Weaver has the stuff to be a ace-of-the-rotation type pitcher, and he kept a sub-4 ERA last season. This team will really need a great season out of Jered if they wish to win the division. With the injuries as they are now, Joe Saunders would slate in as a #2, and he would be a pretty ugly #2 starter. He will give you an ERA in the low 4's, which would be okay as the #4 starter he was intended to be, but will be a below average #2. Jon Garland, who was picked up from the White Sox this offseason, will be the #3. He has had an up and down career, and if he can return to 2005 form this rotation will look alot better. Ervin Santana will be the #4, and will be one of the most interesting pitchers in all of baseball to follow. This guy last year was lights out at home, to the tune of a 3.27 ERA. However, on the road his ERA shot up to 8.38. If Santana can keep his composure on the road, he has the ability to become one of the better pitchers in all of baseball. Rounding out their rotation will be Nick Adenhart. Adenhart has never pitched at the MLB level, and will have a chance to cement his spot in the rotation if he gets hot early.

The Halos' bullpen will most likely be the best in the division. With K-Rod closing the games, they know they have one of the most consistent, effective closers in all of baseball. Setup man Scott Shields will probably miss most of the first month of the season with an injury, but when he returns, he makes for one of the best setup men in all of baseball. The rest of their bullpen is solid and can be relied upon until Shields returns.

At the Plate
The Angels' greatest strength is their lineup. They have plenty of pop and should end up having the most potent offense in the West. Their outfield is filled with All-Stars in Guerrero, Anderson, and newly acquired Hunter. Not too mention Gary Matthews Jr. who will get some time out there while serving as the team's DH. The infield is solid with super-super utility man Chone Figgins taking the bulk of his starts over at third base. At first base Kotchman is good for a .800+ OPS, while Kendrick figures to be an above average second baseman with .800 OPS potential. The only weak spot in the infield will be Erick Aybar. Aybar will be a below average hitting shortstop, but his defense along with the strength of the offense around will cover for him. Napoli is a good hitting catcher, who will provide stability to this offense all year long. One of the question marks for this team is what to do with 3B Brandon Wood. Wood is a highly touted youngster with the ability to be a star at the MLB level, but is being blocked by Figgins at third. I wouldn't be suprised to see Figgins traded before the deadline to make room for Wood. In all this offense has plenty of firepower and the outfield alone should put up a good amount of run support for the pitching staff.

Oakland Athletics 2007 Finish: 3rd in West NBB Prediction: 3rd in West

This Oakland team looks like most other Oakland teams from years past. You don't really know any of the players that well, but after the season you will be wanting them on your team. This could be the sleeper team for the 2008 season, but I am not convinced at this point.

On the Mound
Last season, the team was supported by ace Dan Haren. Well, he is no longer with the team after being traded to Arizona, and he will be missed by the Oakland faithful. This pitching staff is still formidable, and should be able to keep this team in contention throughout the season. Joe Blanton is coming off of a solid season where is posted a sub-4 ERA, and will be the leader of the A's rotation this season. He will be followed up by the oft-injured Rich Harden. Harden has amazing abilities, and when he is healthy he is one of the top 5 pitchers in all of baseball. The problem is that he cannot stay healthy, and it will be interesting to see if he can pitch anything close to 200 innings this season. Also, both of these two guys have been swirled in trade rumors as of late, so you may see one or even both moved by the deadline. Gaudin will most likely slot in as the #2 starter and he will give the team an ERA in the 4-4.5 range. He is dependable but shouldn't slot in anywhere higher than the #3 position. Gaudin will start the season on the 15-day DL, and his spot has been filled by Justin Duchscherer. Duchscherer has plenty of potential and will look to stick as a starter for the first time in his career. The team will begin the season with a 4-man rotation with Dana Eveland taking the final spot. Eveland will need to pitch well to keep his spot, as Lenny DiNardo will be nipping at his heels the whole time from the bullpen.

The A's should have a good bullpen as it is bolstered by closer Huston Street and setup man Alan Embree. Another interesting name to keep an eye on this season is Keith Foulke, who has been riddled with injuries in the past, but has proven to be a useful bullpen member when healthy.

At the PlateThe average fan would look at this offense on batting average alone and potentially laugh. It is not until you look into what these guys do for the team before you can properly judge them. Emil Brown had a tough season last year, but if he can return the being the .350 OBP hitter/10+ homerun hitter that he was in 2006, then he will fit in nicely with his new team. Travis Buck was a 800+ OPS hitter last season, and the team will need him to carry over that success to this season. In centerfield will be Ryan Sweeney. He is only 23 years old, but the team will need to him to play up to his capabilities, which he has yet to do on the Major League level. Outside of Mark Ellis, the infield is very young, like the rest of the team. Daric Barton will hold down first base with Jack Hannahan holding down the other corner. Both of these guys are quite young and unproven on the MLB level. Bobby Crosby may be one of the most important fixtures of the team this year, as he simply needs to improve offensively from last year. Mark Ellis will once again be a solid 2B for this team, and has the potential to have a 800+ OPS season. Behind the plate, Kurt Suzuki is slowly becoming one of the better catchers in the American League. He is still relatively young for a catcher, but he is already hitting well and playing solid defense. The biggest stick in the lineup may be designated hitter Jack Cust. He will mash for power, but will also strike out frequently, very similar to a Jonny Gomes type player. In all there are a lot of question marks in this offense, and they are heavily depending on their youth.

Texas Rangers 2007 Finish: 4th in West NBB Prediction: 4th in West

The Rangers have had a rough run the last few years, and it will be interesting to see how they perform this year. They have potential to have improved on both sides of the ball, but only time will tell how much better they have really gotten.

On the Mound
Kevin Millwood will lead this rotation, and he isn't exactly a great #1. He will most likely have a worse season this year than last, and thats saying something. Let me remind that when looking at Rangers statistics, do not get caught up in the ERA as the numbers are inflated in their park. Vicente Padilla will be the teams #2, and this guy has never been more than a #4 since 2003. I haven't seen anything that would change that, and once again I am expecting a down year from him. The Rangers 3rd starter could be the savior of the staff and that is Jason Jennings. This is a guy who 2 years ago had a sub-4 ERA in Colorado, which is an impressive feat for any pitcher. He is coming off of elbow surgery, and it will be interesting to see if he can return to form, even though reports indicate his velocity isn't back. The 4th spot will go to Kason Gabbard, who should slot in as an adequate #4 with a ERA around 4.5. The last spot may end up being the brightest in the rotation, and that goes to youngster Luis Mendoza. Mendoza has had blister problems, but if he can get past that, he has the potential to be a solid pitcher for this staff. Their bullpen isn't exactly anything to write home about, but their combination up top of C.J. Wilson and Joaquin Benoit should do ok.

At the Plate
The teams biggest acquisition in the offseason is OF Josh Hamilton. Hamilton is a truly intriguing story, but we can get into that at a later date. On the field, he is a beast of a player with all 5 tools, off the field...well, like I said, we will save that for another day. Marlon Byrd has slowly turned into a above average left fielder for the Rangers, who can post an OPS over .800, although the inflation of his numbers are partially due to the park. David Murphy will get his first full season as a starter in the big leagues, and will be ok if he can get on base at a high clip. Milton Bradley will fill in as the team's DH, coming off of an injury while arguing with the umpire last season. It was a shame he was injured as he had an OPS over .900, and was well on his way to his best season ever. Hank Blalock has been a staple at third base for the last 5 years, but his homeruns have decreased every year for the last 3 seasons. The Rangers could really use him finding his power stroke. Michael Young has been consistently one of the betters shortstops in the league for the last 5 years, and will look to continue his success into this season. Next to him at second base is Ian Kinsler, who found his power stroke last season for 20 homeruns. If he can continue to get on-base at a nice percentage and increase his power, he will certify himself as one of the better second basemen in all of baseball. At first base, Ben Broussard needs to slug the ball more, if he the Rangers wish to compete. His numbers were down last year with the Mariners, and they will need the .480 SLG they hope they are getting. Gerald Laird will once again be the man behind the plate this season. He doesn't really offer much offensively, but defensively he is a great catcher. He might even have the best throwing arm of any catcher in the league.

Season Outlook
Before the news on Escobar, the Angels were most likely the favorites for the division. After that story broke loose, I had to go with the Mariners to take the division. Their pitching is much better now that the Angels are lacking Escobar, and their hitting isn't quite as good, but adequate enough to take the division. The Angels can still win the division, but they are going to need excellent pitching home and away from Ervin Santana. The A's are the biggest question mark of any team in the division, as their team is so young. If the young guys can put it all together, they have the chance to make a run, but the odds of that happening just aren't that good. The Rangers pitching is just atrocious and will haunt them all season long. Their offense will be improved, and Josh Hamilton has the ability to post a .900+ OPS season. This will most likely be a battle of the two teams up top, but keep an eye on the A's and look out for their usual second half run.