NBB Division Preview: NL Central

Chicago Cubs 2007 Finish: 1st in Central NBB Prediction: 1st in Central

After a rough start to 2007, the Cubbies made a second half surge to reach October for the first time since 2003, but were abruptly swept by Arizona. The Cubs now enter the 100th year since their last World Series and seem poised to make a run.

On the Mound
Starting pitching will be one of the Cubs' strengths in 2008. The top of their rotation is very solid with Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich "Salisbury" Hill, all of whom are looking to build on great years in 2007. The team also has some decent options on the back end with Jason Marquis, Sean Marshall, converted closer Ryan Dempster, and John Lieber. Marquis should be durable for the season, provided he hasn't been traded to Baltimore, but Dempster's ability to last the season will be tested. Nevertheless, the Cubs' depth could help them out down the stretch, as guys wear out and injuries begin to mount.

Kerry Wood and Carlos Marmol will compete for the closer's role, with (surprise) a premium on Wood's health. Marmol proved to be one of the league's top shutdown flamethrowers last year and likely has the inside track for the job, especially considering Wood has gotten shelled so far this spring. Bob Howry also plays into the mix here, but the three should form a good 7-8-9 to end games, regardless of how they are arranged.

At the Plate
The Cubs added Japanese slugger Kosuke Fukudome, who should give an extra jolt to this hard-hitting lineup. Fukudome's Japanese numbers are outstanding, although we can certainly expect a drop down in the major leagues. If he pans out, Soriano-Fukudome-Lee-Ramirez could become a funeral procession for many a hurler. Felix Pie is still young and may start living up to his potential, and Geovany Soto, who has great numbers in the minors, will provide some pop as the team's backstop. If the Cubs are able to add Brian Roberts, as recent talks have been about, this team would certainly have the strongest lineup in the NL. This team has a ton of potential and will prove that 2008 is a very good year to be a Cubs fan.

Milwaukee Brewers 2007 Finish: 2nd in Central NBB Prediction: 2nd in Central

Milwaukee was everyone's sexy pick to take the division in 2007, but some injuries to their rotation proved to be fatal down the stretch. The team has made a few changes and will try to give the Cubbies a run for the central in 2008.

On the Mound
Consistent pitching was a problem for the Brew Crew last year. Ben Sheets was electric when he was healthy, but hasn't logged 200 innings since his breakout year in 2004. Milwaukee will need a full season out of Sheets if they want to reach the postseason, and that's not a lock by any means. Jeff Suppan provides an average option and will likely eat up the innings that Sheets misses. Dave Bush's stats have only gotten worse since coming up in 2004, but he should be decent on the back-end up the rotation. Rookie Yovani Gallardo baffled hitters in 17 starts, but will miss the first month of the '08 season. His ability to contribute to the rotation will say a lot about how the Brewers' season will end. Chris Capuano had the worst season of his career in '07, but will likely rebound this year and lock in to his career averages. Milwaukee has some other options in Carlos Villanueva, Claudio Vargas and Manny Parra, who has some convincing minor league numbers. The depth helps here, and there is a lot of potential in this pitching staff, but they will only go as far as their health can take them.

The Brewers signed Eric Gagne to be their closer, despite coming off a disappointing year as a setup man for Boston. If Gagne falters, Milwaukee still has former closer Derrick Turnbow, although his services have declined as well. We can expect Gagne to get his bulldog mentality back on the mound and churn out something similar to his post-surgery stint in Texas. The Brewers picked up a few other solid arms, including David Riske, Salomon Torres, and Guillermo Mota, who should provide some depth and help bridge the gap to Turnbow-Gagne.

At the Plate
The Brewers will return slugger Prince Fielder and 2007 Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun, who will likely combine for at least 80 home runs. Braun will shift from third base to left field, with Bill Hall taking over at the hot corner. Rickie Weeks will lead off, trying to recreate his .374 on-base percentage from 2007 (ignore that .235 average) and along with J.J. Hardy, should provide some good RBI chances for the big hitters. Corey Hart (insert 80's pun here) may be their best all-around hitter, who last year showed his ability to get on base and hit for and power (.295/.353/.539, 23 HR) and swipe some bags (23 SB). His strikeouts are a little high (99 last year), but with a little more plate discipline, he could begin to look a lot like a young Barry Lamar Bonds. Mike Cameron joins the club in '08, and after he serves his 25-game suspension for banned stimulants, will get right back to swinging at everything and stealing some bases. Cameron is there more for his glove in center field than his bat, but you could do a lot worse at the bottom of the lineup. Bill Hall and catcher Jason Kendall should round out the order with mediocre seasons. All in all, the duo of Braun and Fielder should make for some fireworks in Miller Park and the Brew Crew will finish in the top half in offense in 2008.

Houston Astros 2007 Finish: 4th in Central NBB Prediction: 3rd in Central

After a World Series appearance in 2005, Houston has steadily dropped out of relevance in the NL Central. The team made some solid acquisitions this year, which may give them the shake-up they need to get back to the postseason.

On the Mound
Starting pitching is certainly the Astro's glaring weakness coming into 2008. Roy Oswalt is still an elite ace, despite his numbers dropping off since back-to-back 20 win seasons in '04 and '05. He's logged over 200 innings in each of the past four seasons, and will continue to be the workhorse this year. After Oswalt, several spots in the rotation are up for grabs. Wandy Rodriguez has been a disappointment in three major league seasons, although he shaved a full point off his ERA in 2007 (4.58) and boosted his strikeouts to 158. I wouldn't hold my breath for much better. Journeyman Woody Williams will likely be the Astro's #3, despite getting blown up last year. Williams had an above-average 2006 in San Diego, so he may have another statistical overachievement this year. Houston has a few options to round out the rotation with Brandon Backe, hoping to get his career back on track after two injury-filled seasons, Chris Sampson, Felipe Paulino, and even walking disaster Shawn Chacon. Things are not looking good for the 'Stros starting rotation this year. Roger Clemens, anyone?

The bullpen, on the other hand, has been shored up and should be pretty solid this year. The Astros picked up 2007 saves leader Jose Valverde, effectively ending the Brad Lidge soap opera in Houston. It's unlikely that Valverde will be as dominant as last year, but will still be one of the top closers in the game. Houston added some depth to the bullpen with guys like Geary, Villareal and Brocail, which will come in handy when their starters get blown up early in games.

At the Plate
2008 will be a great offensive year for the Astros. Their first move was to pick up Miguel Tejada, who had a down year in 2007, but is poised to make a rebound. Kaz Matsui, coming off a career year with the Rockies, steps in at second base and will provide some pop and speed at the top of the lineup. Leading off will likely be young center fielder Michael Bourn, who has shown incredible speed, but could use a little more patience at the plate. If Matsui and Bourn get on base at .350 clips, Tejada, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee will have a field day raking RBI. That's a formidable lineup already, but then you have to consider Hunter Pence, who was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2007 before breaking his wrist and missing a month. If he can recreate his .899 OPS hitting in Houston's 6th spot, this team might break some records. Rookie catcher J.R. Towles was outstanding as a September call-up last year and will round out the lineup along with big-swinging Ty Wigginton. From top to bottom, Houston has a very solid lineup, with a combination of proven sluggers and energetic youngsters. This will be a very fun team to watch this year on the offensive side.

Cincinnati Reds 2007 Finish: 5th in Central NBB Prediction: 4th in Central

After another disappointing season last year, Cincinnati had a fairly quiet offseason. The Reds haven't had a winning season since 2000, but are hoping to improve with young prospects, a few pickups, and a new manager in Dusty Baker.

On the Mound
The starting rotation has some serious question marks that begin immediately after #1 Aaron Harang, who should provide another exceptional year. Bronson Arroyo had a breakout 2006, but followed that performance with a disappointing year in 2007. His ability to perform as a #2 this year will be very telling for the Reds' success. The third rotation spot will likely go to star prospect Homer Bailey, who had an up and down season last year, struggling with some nagging injuries. The team recently signed Josh Fogg and Jeremy Affeldt, who will figure into the mix to fill out the rest of the rotation along with Matt Belisle, and Edinson Volquez, who was received in the Josh Hamilton trade. (Ed. Note: Prospect Johnny Cueto has lights out so far this spring and is expected to earn a spot in the rotation. Manager Dusty Baker is especially keen on Cueto's abilities as a starter. Also, it seems likely that Affeldt and Volquez will end up in the bullpen, which would further shore up their relief pitching. Thanks to Red Reporter) Cincinnati needs their rotation to materialize if they expect to get win opportunities after Harang, especially considering that bloop singles have a very good chance of leaving The Great American Ballpark.

Cincinnati had an MLB-worst 28 blown saves in 2007, and sought to repair the problem by signing closer Francisco Cordero to four-year deal. Making $10.5 million a year, Cordero is a very expensive fix for the Reds' glaring inefficiency at the top of the bullpen, but the front office clearly felt they needed a game-stopper they didn't have to think about. Weathers and Todd Coffey should be decent in setup roles, and we can expect to see an increased role for Jared Burton, who logged a 2.51 ERA in 43 innings last year. The bullpen will likely be further shored up by Affeldt, who served as Toronto's closer temporarily last year, and Volquez.

At the Plate
The Reds' lineup will be much of the same in 2008, with a few fresh faces. It remains to be seen who will start in center field, but it seems likely that uber-prospect Jay Bruce will start the season in the minors. The team could go with the recently acquired Corey Patterson, or reserves Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper until Bruce is ready around midseason. Hopper could be an interesting option, showing a .379 OBP in 307 AB last year. First baseman Joey Votto proved he was ready for the big show last year, hitting .321/.360/.548 in 84 AB, and will send Scott Hatteberg, Pickin' Machine, to the bench. Edwin Encarnacion, seemingly on the verge of breaking out for the past few years, should provide some steady production out of third base. Of course, the Reds will get solid production out of Brandon Phillips, Junior Griffey, and Adam Dunn in the middle and will certainly score enough runs to win games, provided their pitching can hold up. One interesting development could be the role of utilityman Jeff Keppinger, who had an .877 OPS in 241 AB last year. Keppinger will start the season at shortshop, as Alex Gonzalez will probably be out for the first few weeks with a broken knee. As Gonzalez's hitting and durability declines (he's missed about 50 games in each of the past two seasons), Keppinger could be a foil at the shortstop position.

St. Louis Cardinals 2007 Finish: 3rd in Central NBB Prediction: 5th in Central

St. Louis followed up their 2006 World Series with a disappointing third-place finish in the division last year. Not much has changed since then, and it will be interesting to see how the Cards fit into the Central standings in 2008.

On the Mound
The Cardinals had hoped for a stronger rotation this year, but alas, they will need to wait until at least midseason to get ace Chris Carpenter back, and Mark Mulder will be on the shelf until at least mid-May. The team will turn to Adam Wainwright, who acted as the team's closer during the 2006 postseason. Wainwright entered last season as a starter, and turned in a solid effort with a 3.72 ERA and 136 strikeouts in 202 innings. He should be solid down the stretch and become an above-average #2 when Carpenter returns. Wainwright is followed by Braden Looper and Joel Piniero, which does not bode well for the Cardinals' chances. Looper, another converted closer, could be an average #4 at best, and Piniero steadily got worse every season since 2001 as a starter in Seattle. Not a lot of upside here, but these guys will eat up innings for sure. Anthony Reyes, who showed some promise when he came up to big club in 2005, is coming off a disastrous 2-14 year in which he notched a 6.04 ERA. The bright side here is that he can't get much worse, but that's not a great vote of confidence. The end of the rotation could be filled out by Brad Thompson, who had a mediocre season last year, or Matt Clement, who hasn't pitched since 2006. Not exactly thrilling stuff here. The real key to the season will be if Carpenter and Mulder are able to return, stay healthy, and return to their old form (which seems more doubtful for Mulder).

Jason Isringhausen will serve as the closer once again and should be as dependable as ever. His numbers haven't fluctuated much in St. Louis and should remain the same in 2008. The Cards have some other good arms in Ryan Franklin and Russ Springer, who should help set things up for Izzy. The rest of the bullpen is filled out by your average relievers and should be decent throughout the year.

At the Plate
Well they've got Pujols. Despite the nagging injuries he is purported to be dealing with, there is little doubt that A-Puj will smack at least 35 homers and keep his OPS around 1.000. He's missed very little time as a major leaguer, and should be pretty durable for the year. Last year's feel-good-story-turned-alleged-HGH-user, Rick Ankiel, will likely start off the season in center field, keeping the spot warm for uber-prospect Colby Rasmus. The Cards clearly have plans to bring up Rasmus, as evidenced by trading Jim Edmonds in the offseason. Rasmus put up great numbers in AA last year and seems ready to make the jump. Whether he starts the season in the bigs or has to wait until around midseason, Ankiel will switch back over to right. It's hard to tell what kind of year Ankiel will have, especially considering his numbers dropped off in the second month of his stint in the bigs last year. He will probably fail to live up to hype he created for himself last year, but should be a serviceable option for the Cards. The team traded declining slugger Scott Rolen to Toronto for Troy Glaus, but there isn't much of a net gain. Both third basemen are injury risks and have seen their numbers degrade in the past few years, but Rolen has a slight edge in defensive ability. Glaus should provide a presence not too different from Rolen, despite the club's hopes for a "change of scenery" boost. Chris Duncan will provide above-average production from left field, while Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick will figure into the outfield mix as well. Cesar Izturis brings a measly .295 career OBP to the leadoff spot and likely won't impress anybody this year. Nor will Adam Kennedy, who has been on the decline for a few years now and will struggle to keep his OPS above .500. Looks like a mixed-bag year for the Cardinals' lineup, which figures to be average as a whole. Rasmus could provide a spark, but that remains to be seen at this point.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2007 Finish: 6th in Central NBB Prediction: 6th in Central

What can you really say about the Pirates? They haven't notched a winning season since 1992, when a certain MVP was trolling the outfield, and the team has flirted with 100 losses each year in the new millennium. Although the team shuffled around management this year, they did absolutely nothing to help the ballclub win on the field and are in for another season in the cellar.

On the Mound
Starting pitching is the lone bright spot for the Pirates, boasting some live, young arms. Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny both have the potential to be aces of any staff, but it remains to be seen if they can sustain their success thus far. Gorzelanny reached 200 innings last year, which was a big jump up from 60 in the year before, and has experienced shoulder soreness periodically since last September. Pittsburgh must be careful not to overwork their young starters if they want to build a future around them. Matt Morris will provide mediocre innings in the middle of the rotation, and it just drops off from there. Zach Duke, after a stellar rookie campaign in 2005 (to the tune of a 1.81 ERA in 14 starts), has steadily gotten worse. Last year he was 3-8 with a 5.53 ERA and spent much of the year battling elbow issues. This year may be Duke's final chance to come around and prove he can be an effective starter. Paul Maholm may round out the rotation, but much can't be expected from him outside of eating up some innings.

The bullpen is a mixed bag, with Matt Capps acting as the team's closer. Last year, Capps proved he could get some tough outs with his powerful fastball and hardened mentality, and also showed pretty good control for a closer (just 16 walks in 79 innings). Damaso Marte is a very solid setup man, but the problem for the Bucs will be getting the ball to these guys late in games. The rest of the bullpen is filled out by a mix of overwhelmingly mediocre guys that should flash more of the same in 2008.

At the Plate
Nothing too special here, with a mishmash of guys around Jason Bay, who saw a big drop in his numbers last year. Bay went from .286/.396/.532 with 35 homers in 2006 to .247/.327/.418 and 21 dings in 2007. This drop is the main reason Bay didn't get traded in the offseason, as Pittsburgh was unhappy with several teams' offers. The slugging drop is of particular concern, as a decline of more than .100 after several seasons above .500 is pretty dramatic. Bay will likely ratchet his numbers up a notch from last year, but it's doubtful that he will regain his form of the previous four years. Freddy Sanchez has had some ups and downs since winning the NL Batting Title in 2006, but should get on base enough to provide some RBI opportunities for Bay, Adam LaRoche and Xavier Nady. LaRoche will basically strike out and sit well below the Mendoza Line until the All-Star break, when he inexplicably comes alive each year. He and Nady should be good for 20 homers but certainly won't blow anybody away this year. Jack Wilson had a decent year in '07, getting his OBP up to .350, but he will likely regress back to his career averages this year. The leadoff spot and center field job will either go to Nate McLouth or Nyjer Morgan, with Chris Duffy shelved from shoulder surgery. McLouth has a little more pop in his bat and Morgan offers some speed and stealing ability, but McLouth probably has the inside track here. Jose Bautista and Ronny Paulino round out the lineup in typical fashion (not well). Look for the Bucs to finish in the bottom third in offense in the coming season.

Season Outlook

At this point, the division is Chicago's to lose, but Milwaukee will be nipping at their heels if their rotation can stay healthy. Houston and Cincinnati shouldn't be ruled out either, however, as either team could go on a run, although they would need some consistent pitching to materialize. St. Louis won't be able to get things together to make a run, and Pittsburgh can expect the same result as last year, considering they did virtually nothing in the offseason. All in all, it should be a very fun division to watch this year, as four teams have a legitimate chance to take the lead.