NBB Division Preview: NL East

Last season, the NL East proved to be one of the most exciting divisions in the league. The Phillies went on a tear in the second half to comeback and take the division title away from the Mets. The Nationals really shocked a lot of people by not finishing in last place, as many expected them to be the worst team in baseball last season. The Marlins were the real disappointment of the division, after a promising 2006. We will rank each team and give a brief season preview for each team.

New York Mets 2007 Finish: 2nd in East NBB Prediction: 1st in East

The Mets made possibly the biggest acquisition of the season by stealing SP Johan Santana for prospects. They managed to acquire arguably the league's best pitcher, while still managing to hold one to some of their top young players. While adding Santana helps, the team still has holes and is not invincible.

On the Mound
Their rotation right now will consist of Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez, and Hernandez/Pelfrey. This rotation seems solid, but there are still question marks. With Johan, you know you are getting one of the best pitchers in the game every time he heads to the mound. If Pedro can return to his former self and stay healthy all season, the Mets will most likely have the best 1-2 punch in baseball. However, if Pedro gets hurt, it makes the entire rotation much weaker. Maine was great last year, and I expect him to return to his form from last season.

Perez seemed to turn the corner last season, but many people thought the same thing after his outstanding 2004 campaign. El Duque was solid last season, but hasn't shown the consistency on a year in/year out level at any point of his career. Pelfrey hasn't had any success at the MLB level, but is still young with promise. Will Pedro stay healthy, Perez build on his 2008 season, Hernandez become more consistent, or Pelfrey's promise come to fruition? That is quite a few question marks, but the potential is there to have a brilliant staff.

At the Plate
The question marks don't stop with the rotation, as they carry over to the batters. Carlos Delgado is coming off a hip injury, and behind him the Mets do not have many options at first base. Carlos Beltran is always a injury threat as is 41 year old Moises Alou. (Ed. Note: Since this was written Alou has gone down with a injury and will be out til May) The Mets have Endy Chavez to back those two up, but after that there isn't many viable options. The Mets boast one of the best 3b/SS combos with David Wright and Jose Reyes holding it down. Castillo is nothing to brag about over at second, and neither is newly acquired Brian Schneider at catcher. These guys should be able to put up a lot of runs, but having too many injury-prone veterans may prove to be a problem.

Philadelphia Phillies 2007 Finish: 1st in East NBB Prediction: 2nd in East

The Phillies made the hometown proud last year by making the playoffs, and hope to build on last years success. The biggest change in the offseason had to be the loss of center fielder Aaron Rowand, who had a great contract season last year. The biggest addition this offseason was closer Brad Lidge. Lidge had a up and down season last year, but has been dominant throughout his MLB career.

On the Mound
The Phillies rotation is solid up front, but begins to deteriorate after that point. Hamels and Myers should be sturdy anchoring down the front of the rotation. Apparently, Myers will be the Opening Day starter, which would make Hamels one of the better #2 starters in baseball. Hamels has a deadly changeup, and has had much success in his young career. If Kyle Kendrick can pitch like he did last year this team will give the Mets trouble at the top of the division. Kendrick had a sub-4 ERA while only walking 25 batters in 121.0 innings.

With Hamels and Kendrick, this team has a solid duo to build a future around. After this point is where it gets murky. 45 year-old Jamie Moyer slots in as the #4 pitcher. He has had success in the past, but you don't really know what to expect from someone who is five years away from the half-century mark. The last spot in the rotation will most likely go to Adam Eaton, who had a pretty atrocious season last year. He finished with a 6+ ERA in 30 starts. While the backend of the rotation isn't too great, if they can make the playoffs they should have a formidable 3-man group.

At the Plate
Offensively it all starts with the Phillies big three: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins. These guys have been spectacular. When Howard is not playing second fiddle to Jared in Subway commercials, he is the face of the franchise. Utley may finish his career being considered one of the greatest second baseman ever. Last season, Chase put up a OPS of .976 from one of the least producing positions in the game. Rollins is a unique blend of speed and power. He had his first 30 homerun season last year to go along with his 41 stolen bases. After these three there are not really any other above average players, except for Pat "The Bat"Burrell. Pat has posted a OPS of .890 or higher the last three seasons and gives this lineup even more power, as if they needed it. Shane Victorino will be taking over for Rowand in center and will provide you with a league average to slightly above average player in center. The Phillies signed OF Geoff Jenkins to play right field, but Jenkins had a down year in 07. He will need to get his OBP up from last year to be a above average contributer to the team. Pedro Feliz is most likely to play third base and his underwhelming numbers won't make any Phillies fans blush. Backstop Carlos Ruiz is pretty dependable. For a catcher, he swings a decent bat(.738 OPS) and plays good defense behind the plate. In all, the Phillies have a potent offense that should put up a lot of runs this season as they did last year.

Atlanta Braves 2007 Finish: 3rd in East NBB Prediction: 3rd in East

Last season the Braves made the biggest trade of the regular season. By acquiring Mark Texiera from the Rangers for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the Braves added tons of power at first base and saved the guy who puts the names on jerseys from a lot of grief. This move was done in anticipation of making a playoff push that never seemed to fall in place. Instead they stood on the outside watching as the Phillies flew right by.

On the Mound
The Braves pitching staff is old and has plenty of potential to be great, but also potential to be awful. Starting up top John Smoltz has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, as you can expect a sub-4 ERA along from the inning-eating hurler, who is entering his 20th year in the majors. Hudson steps in as the 2nd in command, and he was impressive last season. If he continues his good pitching, the 1-2 combination would probably be better than that out the Phillies. Pitching with the Braves in the 3-spot for the first time since 2002 will be Tom Glavine. Glavine is the epitomy of a innings-eater, as he has pitched over 198 innings 12 out of the last 13 seasons, with the one exception being a 183 inning season.

After Smoltz, Hudson, and Glavine will be starter Steve Avery...well we can dream right? Chuck James will be the fourth starter, and put up impressive numbers last season. If Chuck continues to build on his 07 performance, the future looks promising for the youngster. The real question mark for this team that could be the difference between a playoff contender and a 3rd place team will be the performance of Mike Hampton. Hampton has a career sub-4 era but hasn't pitched since 2005. If he is fully recovered from injury and in top form, he would instantly make the Braves a contender with the Mets for the division.

At the Plate
Offensively, the Braves are similar to the Phillies in that they have a big three in Texiera, Chipper, and McCann, but their big three isn't as good as the Phillies. With Texiera you know your getting 30-40 homers, along with a .370ish OBP. When Chipper is healthy you are getting a all-star caliber talent, the problem is in the last 4 seasons he has averaged around 120 games played. While you will still want his 120 games of play, averaging that with the 42 games played by Omar Infante(Ed. Note: Infante will most likely start the season on the DL, and Lillibridge will most likely be his replacement, hat tip Talking Chop), and the production at third base isn't that much above average. McCann has quickly become one of the top catchers in all of baseball, as he dialed up a OPS of .842 last season while playing solid defense behind the plate. With the departure of Andruw Jones, the Braves looked to free agency to fill the void in center, and found it in the form of Mark Kotsay. Kotsay isn't anyone overly impressive, but he can play at a league average level. Jeff Francoeur had a different season from those in the past. Instead of trying to hit for power, Jeff tried to get on base at a higher percentage and it showed. He rose his OBP by .045 from the previous season, as his home run numbers were nearly cut in half. Now that he has regained his plate discipline, I would expect his home run numbers to start coming back. Matt Diaz showed the ability to get on base at a high clip last season with a little bit of power. Up the middle the tandem of Escobar and Johnson should play solid defense, and both will get on base at a high clip with a little bit of power. In all the Braves offense should be able to put up some runs, but if one of their big three gets hurt, it could have a vast effect on the performance of the rest of the lineup.

Washington Nationals 2007 Finish: 4th in East NBB Prediction: 4th in East

Many people wrote off the Nationals as the cellar-dweller of the NL East, but they proved all of them wrong by beating out the Marlins for 4th place. This is a young team with a lot of potential, and a glut of young depth in the outfield. The team looks to build off of last year and continue their movement upwards in the standings.

On the Mound
26-year-old Shawn Hill will be the ace of the staff, and really one has one year of good experience at the MLB-level. He pitched well last year, but it will be interesting to see how he performs over the course of an entire season. He will be followed up by John Patterson, who is really been a enigma of sorts. After his outstanding 2005 campaign, there have been big things expected from him, but over the last 2 years he has only pitched 88.8 innings with an ERA over 6. If he is back to his 2005 form he would be a great asset to this team, but that would involve him staying healthy and pitching well, which are two things he hasn't been able to do over the last 2 seasons.

Bergmann had a decent season last year, but he is nothing more than a 4/5 starter being pushed into the 3 position. The last two spots in the rotation will go to the winners of a battle between John Lannan, Matt Chico, Tim Redding, Tyler Clippard, and Garrett Mock. If I had to pick two personally I would go with Lannan and Chico, as the both are young with talent and MLB experience. If they decide either needs more seasoning in the minors, they are most likely to go with the veteran Redding.

At the Plate
Between Pena, Dukes, Langerhans, Milledge, and Kearns the Nats have plenty of depth in the outfield. Milledge and Dukes were both acquired through separate trades this offseason, and both will most likely be on the opening day roster. Dukes has all of the talent in the world, but has continually gotten into off-field problems. The Nats are hoping a new city might help him change his notorious ways. Milledge has been a highly touted youngster with the Mets for a while now, and will most likely start the season in center for the Nats. Kearns and Pena will both give you a little bit of power, while Kearns has the ability to get on base at a decent rate. Dmitri Young broke through with the Nats last year, by having the best year in his career. He boasted a OPS of .860, and led the team out of the gutter. Zimmerman had slightly a down year over at third base, but is still one of the top third baseman in baseball. Look for a bounce back year for the young slugger, with the potential of thirty homeruns. The Nationals signed Paul Lo Duca in the offseason to man the backstop. He doesn't hit like he used to, but still has some value. Christian Guzman had a good season last year, and will look to build on his 800+ OPS season, meanwhile next to him at short Belliard will give you a league average second baseman, with above average hair braids.

Florida Marlins 2007 Finish: 5th in East NBB Prediction: 5th in East

Although the Marlins haven't signed a player to a multi-year contract since 2005 and they traded away to the most recognizable faces in the franchise, they were still able to receive city approval to build a new stadium. Last year was a very disappointing season for the Fish after a resurgent 2006, and it doesn't look to get much better here in 2008.

On the Mound
It seems like yesterday when Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez were two of the hottest young pitchers in baseball, and top-prospect Scott Olsen was just waiting in the wings. Since then Johnson and Sanchez have both been dealing with injuries, and Olsen has never been able to find himself on our off the field. Actually, he could find himself off the field, but it was in a jail cell. Olsen is hoping to put a troublesome 2007 season behind him and start anew this year. He still has all of the tools to be a great pitcher, but as a staff ace already? He is most definitely the weakest staff ace in the NL East, if not in all of baseball coming into the season. However, he has the talent to change that perception quickly. Sergio Mitre will most likely slot in as the 2nd starter, and while he had a decent season last year, he is nothing more than a 4/5 starter, and certainly not a #2.

Andrew Miller is the #3 starter and he was one of the pieces in return in the Tigers trade. He has great stuff and is still only 22 years old, but has yet to find himself in a groove on the MLB level. Mark Hendrickson found out in the offseason that he had 20/200 vision, and received lasik eye surgery. He was a adequate 4/5 starter before the surgery, so it should be interesting to see how he pitches now that he can see whether or not its a righty or lefty at the plate. He is supposed to be nothing more than a stopgap until prospects are ready, but the Marlins pitching prospect depth is pretty barren for the first time in a long time. Rounding out the rotation will most likely be Rich "The Holland Hammer" VandenHurk. While VandenHurk got shelled last season, I did get a chance to see him pitch and he has a live arm. He needs to become more consistent with his placement, but if he can put it together he has the tools to be successful.

At the Plate
The Marlins lost one of the best offensive players in baseball in the trade with the Tigers, and his absence will have an effect on the rest of the lineup. Hanley and Uggla will continue to be highly above average offensive players at their positions with plenty of power. To fill in for Cabrera's absence the Fish went the route of retreading players like Jorge Cantu, Jose Castillo, and Dallas McPherson. Cantu is the odds on favorite to win the starting position at third base. Cantu can still hit for power, but he is simply atrocious as a defender...I guess the Marlins were already used to that with Cabrera. Mike Jacobs will give you some power over from the corner, but won't really get on base too much. Mike Rabelo will most likely be the everyday catcher and will probably bat 8th so the pitcher can give him protection. The Marlins outfield could prove to be their biggest strength by the seasons end. Josh "The Hammer" Willingham(yes, they have two players with a nickname involving hammer) will man right field, as he was solid offensively with a .800+ OPS last season. However, the Marlins should consider platooning him, as his .621 OPS against lefties last year just didn't cut it.

Center field may go to highly-touted prospect Cameron Maybin, but I feel the best decision would be to give it to Cody Ross to begin the season. Some more time in the minors wouldn't hurt Maybin, and Ross was filthy off the bench last season. If you have a player whose OPS in 66 games was 1.064, you find a spot to get this guy in the lineup. Right now he is considered behind De Aza in the depth chart. If this continues, it would be an awful decision by the Marlins management group. Rounding out the outfield in right is Jeremy Hermida, who flew under the radar last year. He ended up with a great season. He hit for a OPS of .870 and it really went unnoticed. This is the type of guy you look for as a steal in your fantasy drafts.

Wrap-up

This division can be looked at in two halves with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves up top and the Nationals and Marlins down low. The Mets have to be the favorite to win the division, but I can easily see scenarios when both the Phillies and the Braves take it down. I see the Phillies and Braves as being really close to each other, with the Mets on the next notch up over the two. The Nationals should have the edge over the Marlins, but their pitching isn't too great...but then again, the Marlins is ever worse. Should be a fun season to watch play out, specifically the comeback of Mike Hampton, which could end up being the story of the season for this division.